Inflation is still creeping up as expected. There is no way that a country can enjoy high GDP growth, loose monetary policy and still low inflation. Singapore's interest rate models very closely to the one in the States. With close to zero nominal interest rate and high inflation rate, there will be negative real interest rate. Therefore, for every dollar that you save, you will lose a few cents or more.
In a negative real interest rate environment, one of the best places to park your money will be real assets or financial assets e.g. property, stock, etc. Given the volatile stock markets, it looks like the only logical place for the investors to put their money will be in real estate. But, this scenario cannot go on forever. It will eventually create major housing bubble. Look at US housing crisis today and the one that happened to Japan 20 years ago. The crisis can be deep and lasting. A high inflation rate will also cause problem with the exchange rate and so on. This is something that most central bankers will not like to see.
Now, with interest rate at around zero percent, a "no brainer" guess is that it has to go up sooner or later.
No comments:
Post a Comment